The development status of polyvinyl chloride
(1) Production capacity
Since 2014, the industrial policy and market regulation mechanism to resolve excess capacity have combined to gradually withdraw from the market with a large number of idle and backward production capacity, the domestic polyvinyl chloride production capacity has grown negatively for three consecutive years, and the relationship between market supply and demand has gradually improved. Since the second half of 2016, with the further enhancement of cost support, the profitability of domestic PVC enterprises has increased significantly. The improvement of the industry situation has increased the confidence of enterprises, and the new expansion project has accelerated the progress. In 2017, domestic PVC production capacity returned to the upside. In 2018, the industry’s production capacity maintained a steady development of in and out, and the total amount of production capacity fell slightly due to the lag in the release of new capacity. In 2019, the average scale of enterprises increased steadily, and the industry’s production capacity turned into net growth.
In 2021, there will be 71 PVC manufacturers in China, an increase of 1 over 2020; The production capacity is 27.13 million tons (including 1.395 million tons of PVC paste resin), and the new production capacity is 650,000 tons, and 160,000 tons are withdrawn.
Analysis of the number of PVC production enterprises in China from 2012 to 2021
Analysis of China’s PVC capacity from 2012 to 2021
From the perspective of regional distribution, the current northwest region relies on rich resources and energy advantages, is recognized in the industry as a low-cost area of calcium carbide polyvinyl chloride, and has a certain leading position in China’s PVC industry pattern. In 2021, the production capacity of PVC in the northwest region will be 13.87 million tons, accounting for 51.12%.
Regional distribution pattern of PVC production capacity in China in 2021
(2) Analysis of the balance between supply and demand
In recent years, with the rapid development of China’s economy, the demand for polyvinyl chloride has been increasing, and the domestic polyvinyl chloride production has maintained steady growth overall. In 2021, China’s PVC output was 23.1 million tons, the domestic import volume was 561,000 tons, the export quantity was 2.094 million tons, and the domestic demand was 21.567 million tons.
Analysis of the balance of supply and demand of PVC in China from 2012 to 2021
(3) Price analysis
PVC calcium carbide process occupies the mainstream of the market, in 2021, of the total domestic production capacity of 27.13 million tons, the production capacity of the calcium carbide process path is 21.13 million tons, accounting for about 78%. The cost of calcium carbide accounts for a relatively large proportion, so calcium carbide has a greater impact on the price of polyvinyl chloride. Calcium carbide relies on the high temperature melting reaction of the arc to generate, there are high electrical energy consumption and the generation of soot, calcium carbide slag, waste water and other pollutants. Under the policies of stricter environmental protection policies and dual control of energy consumption, the increase in calcium carbide production is limited, resulting in an increase in the purchase cost of calcium carbide, which in turn affects the price of polyvinyl chloride. In 2021, the average price of domestic PVC will reach 9171.55 yuan / ton, and the average price of calcium carbide will reach 4841.76 yuan / ton.
Comparative analysis of the average price of PVC products and calcium carbide products in China from 2015 to 2021
